| e e-demand growth rates — see why! | | | | growth rates, compared to the other rich states. |
| | | | High wealth is likely to be contained in its largest |
| This article discusses which US states have the | | | | cities like San Francisco and LA with regional |
| highest growth in e-demand of gluten free | | | | wealth and interest in gluten free searches |
| products and why they are mostly clustered in | | | | reducing the overall growth rate. Also as a whole |
| the North East of America. See how they | | | | the state is likely to have achieved its growth |
| contribute to America growing at nearly 40% per | | | | relatively early and may have a high absolute |
| annum! | | | | search numbers already, reducing its growth rate |
| Recently analysis was performed for Gluten Free | | | | potential. |
| Pages on the growth of whole country gluten | | | | Lowest growth rate HIGH WEALTH states |
| free e-markets (using Google data) for the US, | | | | Connecticut and Maryland are the first and third |
| Australia, Canada and the UK. | | | | highest wealth states in all of America yet over |
| That research showed that the US (42%) and | | | | the last couple of years they have had the |
| Canada (18%) had the largest growth (gluten free | | | | lowest of the rich states growth rates. In |
| searches on Google from 2004 to 2009), while | | | | particular Maryland has the highest 'wealth per |
| Australia had 10% per annum growth and UK | | | | population' value and the lowest growth profile. |
| essentially zero. | | | | This could mean that it has already peaked in |
| This information is tempered by the actual base | | | | absolute search terms or that it simply isn't |
| level of searches in each country. Previous | | | | growing as fast as expected. Of equal influence |
| analysis of what is termed Celiac searches / | | | | maybe that Maryland state while having a high |
| mth' within each country ranks the four countries | | | | population of 5,296,486 and a high density of 222 |
| of interest as : Australia (4.2 searches), Canada | | | | people per square km, however it has a relatively |
| (3.3), USA (2.7) and UK (2.2). The analysis adjusts | | | | small largest city' of Baltimore with around |
| values to take account of internet usage and | | | | 635,000 people. |
| Google market share. Of course the US has the | | | | Connecticut is the third richest state but only has |
| largest population of each country under analysis | | | | a population of 3.4 million people. Connecticut area |
| so in absolute terms the US has the most | | | | is 12,548 square km with a population density of |
| searches (over 3 million) however searches | | | | 279 people per square km but again its largest |
| per celiac' gives a truer indication (level of | | | | city is Bridgeport with a population of 140,000. |
| saturation) of a market in each country. | | | | It is believed that besides the need to have a |
| The GFP Matrix is a construct that compares a | | | | minimum state population, that a relatively high |
| country's celiac searches per month' V | | | | urbanization may be required to achieve critical |
| GDP per person'. This analysis shows that | | | | mass of both diagnosis, word of mouth and a |
| there is a logarithmic relationship between these | | | | substantial gluten free market. |
| two variables. That is, the greater the wealth of a | | | | Highest growth rate HIGH WEALTH states |
| country, the higher the diagnosis and the higher | | | | Massachusetts (popn 6,349,097, sq km 20,305, |
| the e-demand for gluten free products. | | | | popn density 320) is said to have most of its |
| To better understand the dynamics of these each | | | | population in the Boston metropolitan area. Boston |
| countries markets it is best to analyze the lowest | | | | itself has a population of 600,000. |
| level of analysis that Google allows - down to | | | | Virginia is the highest growth of the wealthiest |
| state level. Firstly consider the US. | | | | states. (popn 7,078,515, Area is 102,547 sq km, |
| AMERICAN STATES | | | | popn density 75). The population density is low, |
| Following this theory of country wealth being | | | | but this is because compared to the other states |
| related to the level of gluten free market | | | | analyzed above, it has one of the largest areas. |
| maturity, it is useful to compare the top ten | | | | However with its large area, it still has a very high |
| economic US states with the bottom ten states | | | | level of urbanization, with its top five cities |
| and see if this rule applies within countries. | | | | accounting for nearly 1 million people: Virginia |
| The data below is "measured by median | | | | Beach, 438,415; Norfolk, 231,954; Chesapeake, |
| household income" and is sourced from: The U.S. | | | | 218,968; Arlington, 195,965; Richmond, 193,777; |
| Census Bureau in 2007. | | | | For America, It would appear that high wealth, |
| The 10 richest states with the highest median | | | | high urbanization, and states above four million |
| household income | | | | people are needed to generate the highest |
| STATE | | | | growth in gluten free demand. |
| INCOME POPULATION | | | | AUSTRALIA |
| Maryland | | | | Australia’s three most populous states and |
| $65,144 5,296,486 | | | | capital cities (abs data June 2007) are: |
| New Jersey | | | | NSW 6,888 M |
| $64,470 8,414,350 | | | | (Sydney = 4.334M) |
| Connecticut | | | | VIC 5.204 M |
| $63,422 3,405,565 | | | | (Melbourne 3.805 M) |
| Hawaii | | | | QLD 4.181 M |
| $61,160 1,211,537 | | | | (Brisbane 1.857M) |
| Massachusetts | | | | TOTAL Australia population = |
| $59,963 6,349,097 | | | | 21.015 M |
| New Hampshire | | | | From the population information it can be seen |
| $59,683 1,235,786 | | | | that the three largest states in Australia comprise |
| Alaska | | | | the majority of Australia's population, and within |
| $59,393 626,932 | | | | those states, the populations are largely within the |
| California | | | | capital cities. |
| $56,645 33,871,648 | | | | At the start of this article it was stated that |
| Virginia | | | | Australia has a celiac search per month' value |
| $56,277 7,078,515 | | | | of 4.4 compared to America's 2.2. Thus while |
| Minnesota | | | | Australia has a much higher search value per |
| $54,023 4,919,479 | | | | celiac, its gluten free search growth rate is much |
| The 10 poorest states with the lowest median | | | | less than America because it is closer to maturity |
| household income | | | | and plateuing. |
| STATE | | | | The net worth data shows that apart from house |
| INCOME POPULATION | | | | prices (much higher in Sydney than Melbourne) |
| Montana | | | | that Sydney and Melbourne have a similar wealth |
| $40,627 902,195 | | | | profiles. As these two cities have similar |
| Tennessee $40,315 | | | | populations, level of urbanization, wealth, education |
| 5,689,283 | | | | and race profiles it can be seen that their gluten |
| Kentucky $39,372 | | | | free growth trends are also very similar. Also |
| 4,041,769 | | | | note that just like the less populous states in |
| Louisiana $39,337 | | | | America, Brisbane is the lower wealth and lower |
| 4,468,976 | | | | population capital city, of the three states |
| Alabama | | | | analyzed in Australia, which has resulted in it |
| $38,783 4,627,851 | | | | having the lowest growth trend of the three |
| Oklahoma | | | | largest states. |
| $38,770 3,450,654 | | | | The high level of urbanization (large proportion of |
| Arkansas $36,599 | | | | state populations in large cities) seems to be one |
| 2,673,400 | | | | of the main reasons that Australia's celiac |
| West Virginia $35,059 | | | | search / mth' rate is higher than the US. |
| 1,808,344 | | | | CONCLUSIONS |
| Mississippi $34,473 | | | | From the analysis of America's top ten wealthiest |
| 2,844,658 | | | | states and Australia's three wealthiest states, it |
| US POOREST STATES ANALYSIS | | | | appears that the wealth of a state (per person) is |
| For the three poorest states in the US, Google | | | | a good indicator of the gluten free searches |
| "does not have enough search volume to show | | | | GROWTH trend (and most likely the awareness |
| graphs." Of the other seven, data only starts in | | | | of celiac disease). The highest wealth per |
| late 2008 and is very intermittent and unreliable. | | | | person' states have a much higher growth rate of |
| You might consider that the Google data cut off | | | | gluten free markets compared to the poorer |
| applies because of low searches caused by low | | | | states. This suggests that the markets are still in |
| state populations. This might seem also seem to | | | | their infancy as the high wealth states are |
| be the case for rich states too as the three | | | | growing fast but beginning off a low base. This is |
| rich states' out of the top ten that do not | | | | in line with general low diagnosis rates. |
| have data record (Hawaii, New Hampshire, Alaska) | | | | It also appears that there is a population threshold |
| ALL have populations under 1.3 million people. | | | | for states where gluten free registers in the |
| However two of the rich states that Google's | | | | publics consciousness' to have them search in |
| does record data for: Connecticut (pop 3,405,565) | | | | sufficient numbers to be recognized by Google. |
| and Minnesota (pop 4,919,479) both have lower | | | | For example Connecticut (population 3,405M) is |
| populations than four of the poorest ten states | | | | the third richest US state (per person), but it has |
| that don't have a Google record. | | | | one of the lower populations and lower |
| This rules out population size as the only predictor | | | | urbanizations, which leads to one of the lowest |
| of data availability or market maturity. Two | | | | growth trends of the wealthy US states. |
| preliminary likely causes that may lead to lack of | | | | Queensland's capital, Brisbane (population 1. 857M), |
| data for low wealth populous states is that they | | | | is a lower proportion of the state’s total |
| are likely to have low internet usage and low | | | | population (compared to NSW and VIC) which |
| diagnosis rates. Without diagnosis, their need for | | | | leads to QLD having a gluten free search growth |
| gluten free products would not exist and search | | | | profile that is substantially lower than VIC or NSW. |
| demand would be very low. | | | | It would also appear that a high wealth states |
| US RICHEST States analysis | | | | with high urbanization are also likely to have |
| Data is available for Maryland, New Jersey, | | | | potentially higher educated populations and more |
| Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, Virginia and | | | | likely to seek out resolutions to health conditions |
| Minnesota. Data is not available for Hawaii, New | | | | such are caused by things like celiac disease. |
| Hampshire, Alaska. | | | | Wealthy states that are more rural populations |
| The similarity in growth profiles between the ALL | | | | are likely to have less access to internet, and |
| American growth trend and the wealthy states | | | | have less experienced (regarding celiac disease |
| suggests that these states have the most effect | | | | diagnosis) doctors causing less gluten demand and |
| on the total countries growth in general. It is | | | | low gluten demand growth rates. |
| noted that the vast majority of these wealthy | | | | At the other end of the scale it appears that the |
| states are all geographically close by to each | | | | largest wealthy states are likely to have already |
| other in the north east of America, so they are | | | | generated a substantial base for gluten free |
| likely to have cultural similarities. | | | | searchers several years ago and thus the relative |
| The ALL American' gluten free e-demand | | | | growth trends of the wealthy most populous |
| growth trend is one of the highest of all the | | | | cities in America (California) and Australia (Sydney) |
| developed countries under analysis. Of the top ten | | | | are not the highest growth trend states because |
| wealth states in the US, California has the largest | | | | they are beginning off a high base and may be |
| population but has only an average market | | | | slightly more mature markets. |