The AUSTRALIAN Gluten Free Market grew 37% in 09, following its leading global GF status in

>Wheat free………16,000……………
At 37%, AUSTRALIA experienced its strongest 27,600…………73%
online demand for gluten free associatedLocations………  3,780………………
information in five years. The importance of this is 4,500……… … 19%
not only the strength of that economy, but thatSpecific foods…35,380……….……
Australia was the leading country in the world for 68,500……… ..94%
gluten free online demand in 2008 with a ‘celiacAustralian Gluten Free Search group proportions
searches per month’ value of 4.2 — There are now an approximately equal number
well ahead of America. Gluten diet searches wereof monthly searches for the three groups of
also up 92% while specific GF food searches‘celiac’ information, gluten free recipes
increased by 94%.and the third category of GF specific foods. The
Gluten Free Australia demand trendsGF recipe group all contained a similar mix of
Previous Gluten Free Pages original analysis showswords with the eight phrases (containing recipe or
that Australia was one of the top gluten freegluten) making up 71,000 searches.
online demand countries in the world. TheOne of the more surprising results was the GF
following analysis uses Google data sets. At aspecific food group increasing its members from
value of 4.2 ‘celiac searches per month’16 to 19 of the top 50 terms, and its total
in 2008 Australia had a very healthy gluten freevolume from 35,380 to 68,500. While the top
market. However another article showed thatterms were related to bread (16,200) and GF
while its seasonal trend was stable and increasing,flour (6,500) there were still a few people looking
it was at a relatively low growth rate, comparedfor dairy gluten free products (7,300), cakes
to other global leaders such as USA and Canada.(13,500) and chocolate (5,200).
In fact Australia’s linear growth for 2008The pattern of the main generic group to remain
was considered to be only 8% compared to therelatively stable in its proportion of total terms
US at 37%.and the celiac group decreasing in value was
Australian 2009 search volumesexperienced across the leading online GF markets
The standard analysis of the online gluten freein 2009. This was experienced in America, Canada
market uses Google data for the top 50 glutenand United Kingdom (UK). This effect is believed
free associated terms. These terms are sortedto be due to the celiac group search terms
into seven groups as shown in the table below.remaining relatively near zero growth (as
While these groups may seem disproportionate,discussed before in previous GFP celiac market
they allow a very useful comparison withdemand trend research) and most other gluten
developing economies online demand searchfree terms experiencing high growth rates. The
patterns. For instance many developing marketsgrowth rates may be caused by an increase in
often have the generic gluten free group at aboutdiagnosis rates, or the recovery from the global
half the proportion of the top 50 searches, thanfinancial crisis of 2008 and friends and family (non
that shown by Australia. Lower developedceliac, also searching for gluten free foods) due to
markets also tend to have a much larger volumegift giving, restaurant going with celiac or more
apportioned to GF specific foods, such as glutenpeople finding they are gluten intolerant.
free bread, beer and chocolate.Australian long term Gluten free SEARCH
Last year’s (2009) gluten free searchTRENDS
volumes for the top fifty terms have increasedGoogle provides data back to 2004 on some of
from 470K to 655K in Australia. This is athe larger searched terms. To give an
dramatic 37% increase over one year. Of theunderstanding of how the general market is
seven groups, the two major changes were thatperforming over time, the search volumes for the
the generic gluten free group increased by 50%,single term ‘gluten free’ is analyzed and
while the celiac group decreased by 5%. For theused as a proxy for other associated gluten free
main generic GF group there was an increase interms (except celiac).
terms of 7 to 9, however the two main glutenThe long term growth trend shows considerable
free terms still retain a 55% proportion of thevolatility at the start of 2009. To understand
total generic group. The celiac group hasseasonal effects it is better to analyze the search
decreased from 7 terms to 3 terms and itsvolume demand on a normalized plot. As the top
volume was similar to 2008 November monthly50 rated terms increased nearly 40% it is
searches with a 2009 November search total ofexpected that this individual ‘gluten free’
70,800. term would show a good increase, and it does.
The table below shows the growth rate inThe linear trend growth rate for ‘gluten
absolute monthly search volumes of the sevenfree’ in 2008 in Australia was 16% while in
gluten free associated groups:2009 it was 38%.
GF Group……… VOL 2008………   VOLWhen the data for the last five years is
2009…% Increasenormalized, all years have a tendency to have a
GF Generic……… 262,900…………peak in July (mid winter) and also in December
 395,400………50%(Christmas effect). The main difference with 2009
Gluten diet………9,080………………is that the winter peak was much more
 17,400………..92%accentuated and that while it also went through a
GF Recipe………  39,280……………more pronounced September to November
 71,000………..81%trough than usual. Its December peak value is
Celiac………………15% higher than where 2007 and 2008 search
74,200……………  70,800……….. -5%volumes finished in December.