| Gluten Free Australia demand trends Previous | | | | information, gluten free recipes and the third |
| Gluten Free Pages original analysis shows that | | | | category of GF specific foods. The GF recipe |
| Australia was one of the top gluten free online | | | | group all contained a similar mix of words with the |
| demand countries in the world. The following | | | | eight phrases (containing recipe or gluten) making |
| analysis uses Google data sets. At a value of 4.2 | | | | up 71,000 searches. One of the more surprising |
| 'celiac searches per month' in 2008 Australia had a | | | | results was the GF specific food group increasing |
| very healthy GF market. However another article | | | | its members from 16 to 19 of the top 50 terms, |
| showed that while its seasonal trend was stable | | | | and its total volume from 35,380 to 68,500. While |
| and increasing, it was at a relatively low growth | | | | the top terms were related to bread (16,200) and |
| rate, compared to other global leaders such as | | | | GF flour (6,500) there were still a few people |
| USA and Canada. In fact Australia's linear growth | | | | looking for dairy gluten free products (7,300), |
| for 2008 was considered to be only 8% | | | | cakes (13,500) and chocolate (5,200). The pattern |
| compared to the US at 37%. | | | | of the main generic group to remain relatively |
| Australian 2009 search volumes | | | | stable in its proportion of total terms and the |
| The standard analysis of the online gluten free | | | | celiac group decreasing in value was experienced |
| market uses Google data for the top 50 GF | | | | across the leading online GF markets in 2009. This |
| associated terms. These terms are sorted into | | | | was experienced in America, Canada and United |
| seven groups as shown in the table below. While | | | | Kingdom (UK). |
| these groups may seem disproportionate, they | | | | This effect is believed to be due to the celiac |
| allow a very useful comparison with developing | | | | group search terms remaining relatively near zero |
| economies online demand search patterns. For | | | | growth (as discussed before in previous GFP |
| instance many developing markets often have | | | | celiac market demand trend research) and most |
| the generic GF group at about half the proportion | | | | other gluten free terms experiencing high growth |
| of the top 50 searches, than that shown by | | | | rates. The growth rates may be caused by an |
| Australia. | | | | increase in diagnosis rates, or the recovery from |
| Lower developed markets also tend to have a | | | | the global financial crisis of 2008 and friends and |
| much larger volume apportioned to GF specific | | | | family (non celiac, also searching for gluten free |
| foods, such as GF bread, beer and chocolate. Last | | | | foods) due to gift giving, restaurant going with |
| year's (2009) gluten free search volumes for the | | | | celiac or more people finding they are gluten |
| top fifty terms have increased from 470K to | | | | intolerant. Australian long term Gluten free |
| 655K in Australia. This is a dramatic 37% increase | | | | SEARCH TRENDS Google provides data back to |
| over one year. Of the seven groups, the two | | | | 2004 on some of the larger searched terms. |
| major changes were that the generic gluten free | | | | To give an understanding of how the general |
| group increased by 50%, while the celiac group | | | | market is performing over time, the search |
| decreased by 5%. | | | | volumes for the single term 'gluten free' is |
| For the main generic GF group there was an | | | | analyzed and used as a proxy for other |
| increase in terms of 7 to 9, however the two | | | | associated gluten free terms (except celiac). The |
| main GF terms still retain a 55% proportion of the | | | | long term growth trend shows considerable |
| total generic group. The celiac group has | | | | volatility at the start of 2009. To understand |
| decreased from 7 terms to 3 terms and its | | | | seasonal effects it is better to analyze the search |
| volume was similar to 2008 November monthly | | | | volume demand on a normalized plot. As the top |
| searches with a 2009 November search total of | | | | 50 rated terms increased nearly 40% it is |
| 70,800. The table below shows the growth rate in | | | | expected that this individual 'gluten free' term |
| absolute monthly search volumes of the seven | | | | would show a good increase, and it does. The |
| GF associated groups: | | | | linear trend growth rate for 'gluten free' in 2008 in |
| GF Group......... VOL 2008......... VOL 2009...% Increase | | | | Australia was 16% while in 2009 it was 38%. |
| GF Generic......... 262,900............ 395,400.........50% | | | | When the data for the last five years is |
| Gluten diet.........9,080.................. 17,400...........92% | | | | normalized, all years have a tendency to have a |
| GF Recipe......... 39,280............... 71,000...........81% | | | | peak in July (mid winter) and also in December |
| Celiac.................. 74,200............... 70,800........... -5% | | | | (Christmas effect). The main difference with 2009 |
| Wheat free.........16,000............... 27,600............73% | | | | is that the winter peak was much more |
| Locations......... 3,780.................. 4,500............ 19% | | | | accentuated and that while it also went through a |
| Specific foods...35,380................ 68,500...........94% | | | | more pronounced September to November |
| Australian Gluten Free Search group proportions | | | | trough than usual. Its December peak value is |
| There are now an approximately equal number of | | | | 15% higher than where 2007 and 2008 search |
| monthly searches for the three groups of 'celiac' | | | | volumes finished in December. |