| m-link"> | | | | disease and gluten free and in the ‘early |
| The leading Gluten free countries are also the | | | | adopter’ stage of market maturity. This |
| wealthiest (per person). Taken further, we find | | | | means that in the GF case, that the highest |
| that there is a relationship between high gluten | | | | growth states (based over a two year period), |
| free searches and the wealthiest States in | | | | are most likely also the most mature GF states. |
| America. Though this is tempered by the nature | | | | WHAT are the highest growth American cities? |
| of the wealth, urbanization and other factors. This | | | | A high growth state is naturally composed of high |
| ground breaking research looks at what factors | | | | growth cities, however depending on the |
| are involved in the take up of gluten free | | | | urbanisation, wealth and education level of the |
| products. | | | | people in these cities will dictate how many of |
| A previous original analysis article for Gluten Free | | | | them contribute to the achieving the high growth |
| Pages postulated that the most mature and | | | | rate of GF searches in the state as a whole. This |
| fastest growth gluten free countries in the world | | | | is why it can be very instructive to see what the |
| were highly related to the wealth of the country, | | | | overall top ten Gluten free online demand growth |
| specifically the GDP per person. | | | | cities in the USA are .. |
| The gluten free online demand AND wealth | | | | Top ten American GF cities and population (Dec |
| relationship turned out to be logarithmic with a | | | | 2009) |
| close relationship for most countries. It was | | | | CITYÂ…Â…Â…Â…Â…Â…Â…..Â…Population |
| decided that this concept should be explored | | | | Littleton, COÂ…Â…..Â…41,986 |
| more. The next postulate was that perhaps this | | | | Denver, COÂ…Â…Â…Â….2,927,911 |
| theory could be extended to states or regions | | | | Portland, ORÂ…Â…Â…..575,930 |
| within countries, and even cities. | | | | Renton, WAÂ…Â…Â…Â….82,548 |
| A GFP analysis and article was created that | | | | Seattle, WAÂ…Â…Â…Â….602,000 |
| explored the gluten free online demand growth | | | | Minneapolis, MNÂ…..101, 659 |
| rates of the top ten and bottom ten wealth | | | | Albany, NYÂ…Â…Â…Â…Â…94,172 |
| states in America. The analysis showed that the | | | | Boston, MAÂ…Â…Â…Â…...599,351 |
| poorest states either did not have data or it was | | | | Salt Lake City, UT...181,743 |
| very intermittent. For the top ten average income | | | | Rochester, NY.........219,773 |
| states (listed below), GF demand or growth rates | | | | While Google does not provide growth data down |
| were found to be very high. | | | | to city level, it does at least provide the overall |
| A similar analysis was performed for Australian | | | | top ten list, as well as the top ten cities within |
| states (as Australia was found to be a higher | | | | each state. From the above list it can be seen |
| ‘celiac search’ per month country than | | | | that the top two GF growth cities in the USA are |
| the US). Similar results were found. The conclusion | | | | Littleton and Denver which are both in Colorado, |
| was drawn that the for the wealthy highest | | | | which happens to be the current highest growth |
| growth states to have a high sustained gluten | | | | GF state in America. The third highest growth |
| free search growth rate that they required: a | | | | city Portland happens to be in the Second highest |
| minimum population and high urbanisation. This | | | | growth rate state OREGAN. The fourth and fifth |
| may or may not be connected with healthcare | | | | highest growth rate cities Renton and Seattle are |
| availability and a willingness and education of | | | | in Washington. |
| doctors to test for celiac disease, considering that | | | | The above correlations suggest that in this |
| the US diagnosis rate may be under 10%. | | | | fledgling state of the GF market, that the highest |
|  America’s most wealthy states   | | | | growth cities have a very strong influence on the |
| Â Â | | | | overall highest gluten free growth states status. |
| STATEÂ…Â…..Â…Â….... Average | | | | Below is the top ten city list for the top TWO |
| INCOME…... POPULATION | | | | gluten free growth states. You will see from the |
| ….Â…5,296,486 | | | | number next to the city what Google considers |
| New | | | | its relative gluten free growth rate to be, for that |
| …8,414,350 | | | | state. Curiously the top two cities in the USA |
| Â…Â….3,405,565 | | | | Littleton, CO Denver, CO are ranked at number |
| ………..1,211,537 | | | | two and eight on the Colorado list. For The |
| Â….6,349,097 | | | | second highest state Oregon, the only city on its |
| New | | | | list that makes the top ten of all American cities is |
| ,235,786 | | | | Portland. None of Maine’s top ten cities |
| …Â…Â…Â….626,932 | | | | make it on the American top ten list. |
| Â…Â…Â…33,871,648 | | | | What the states’ city list does show is |
| …Â…Â…Â…Â…7,078,515 | | | | how important it is for a whole range of cities |
| …Â…Â…Â…4,919,479Â | | | | within the top states to contribute to the overall |
| ACTUAL HIGHEST GROWTH GF states | | | | states gluten free growth rate. For instance |
| Google provides growth rate data for any phrase | | | | Maine has no cities in the top ten American cities |
| that has sufficient search volumes. For gluten | | | | list and its second city New Gloucester has only |
| free, as of late December 2009, the following | | | | 0.745 the growth rate of its top city, |
| America states were found to have the highest | | | | Scarborough. When you look at the cities in the |
| gluten free search rates. | | | | highest GF growth state Colorado, seven of its |
| State, 2009 annual growth rate index shown | | | | cities have a relative growth rate above |
| after the state (eg 2.0 = 200%) | | | | 0.745. This means for Maine that either |
| (those with BOLD state text are in the top ten | | | | Scarborough is a very, very high growth city |
| wealthiest USA states) | | | | (which it is not as it doesn’t rate in the top |
| Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ColoradoÂ…..2.1 | | | | ten American cities) OR that many of |
| Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â OregonÂ…. 3.0 | | | | Maine’s cities all have a very high growth |
| Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Maine | | | | rate. |
|                New Hampshire | | | | Top ten GF cities in Colorado (Dec 2009) |
|                Washington….  2.3 | | | |  CITY.............GF Growth Ratio |
| Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â MinnesotaÂ….. 2.3 | | | | Grand Junction.......1.0 |
| Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Rhode Island | | | | Littleton.................0.91 |
|                Massachusetts…. 2.1 | | | | Colorado Springs.....0.885 |
| Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Utah | | | | Boulder..................0.84 |
|                Connecticut….. 2.0 | | | | Durango.................0.81 |
| You will notice that not all of the | | | | Aurora....................0.775 |
| ‘wealthiest’ states on the first list, are in | | | | Denver...................0.755 |
| the top ten current highest growth gluten free | | | | Englewood..............0.66 |
| states above. A first point is that if a states | | | | Ft Collins................0.625 |
| wealth is based on finance industries or natural | | | | Top ten GF cities in Oregon (Dec 2009) |
| resources, the wealth may be concentrated in a | | | | City.......................GF Growth Ratio |
| few individuals hands and not evenly distributed | | | | Canby....................1.0 |
| amongst the people — which is unlikely to | | | | Troutdale................0.885 |
| lead to high GF search rates. This is potentially | | | | Springfield..............0.84 |
| why Alaska and Hawaii were high wealth states, | | | | Aurora....................0.735 |
| but not high gluten free demand states. Also | | | | Ashland..................0.69 |
| certain races have certain dispositions (genes) to | | | | Roseburg.................0.645 |
| acquiring celiac disease. Europeans (Caucasians) | | | | Bend.......................0.57 |
| seem to have a higher rate of this gene — | | | | Corvallis..................0.55 |
| so this will influence the level of celiac disease in a | | | | Beaverton................0.475 |
| community too. | | | | Portland...................0.46 |
| For the above TEN states two states only have | | | | CONCLUSION |
| data for the last year, so while New Hampshire | | | | Google releases growth rate data on a weekly |
| and Utah are in the top ten, the limited and very | | | | basis, and this trend information is only for one |
| volatile data is not useful for analysis. The other | | | | term — ‘gluten free’. So it is |
| eight states have a VERY similar search growth | | | | expected that state and city order may change |
| pattern over the last two years (2008 to | | | | to some degree. However as four of the |
| 2009). As is the general GF search pattern for | | | | wealthiest states (GDP per person) Maine; New |
| America, there is a peak for November | | | | Hampshire; Massachusetts; Connecticut also rank |
| December, then a lull in January, February, March. | | | | in the top ten growth rate cities on Google for |
| However all of the states had a very strong | | | | this week, it appears that the wealth of the state |
| growth pattern from April to December 2009. | | | | still does correlate somewhat with the growth |
| For eight states, the table above shows the | | | | rate of a state. |
| linear projection of the growth rate for the year. | | | | The individual state cities list shows that for a |
| So while Colorado is listed by Google as being the | | | | state to rank high in overall growth rate for GF |
| current (December 2009) highest growth state, | | | | information searches, that it needs one or two |
| this is based on its very latest demand. | | | | cities to rank very well (for example Littleton and |
| While high wealth, high education, highly trained | | | | Denver in Colorado) or for many cities to rank |
| medical practitioners are a precursor to good | | | | fairly well in the state. |
| celiac diagnosis levels, high growth states do not | | | | GF diagnosis rates hover around 5% and most |
| necessarily correlate with ‘market | | | | states are finding explosive online gluten free |
| maturity’. However it is thought that since | | | | searches growth, which parallels real world sales. |
| GF diagnosis rates are so low in the US (< 5%), | | | | This report shows the current GF hotspots |
| that most states are relatively new to celiac | | | | around America. |